Join the President of Tallgrass Freight, Sean Richardson, as he shares his outlook on the freight market heading into Q2 2026, breaks down the key forces shaping the industry right now, and offers guidance for agents who want to come out ahead.
If 2025 was a whirlwind, 2026 has continued the trend — and then some. Reflecting on the first quarter, a lot has happened in a short amount of time. From international unrest to fuel price volatility, new carrier regulations to a shifting freight market, there’s no shortage of headlines to process.
But if you’ve been in the freight industry for any length of time, you know that the noise will always be there. What matters most is how you respond to it.
So what does all of that mean for the road ahead? Here’s what Q1 taught us and what we’re watching as we head into Q2.
A Look Back at Q1
As we’ve been saying for the last year or so, the goal is always to capture volume. Get the load count up. Build the book. We were aware the market would likely shift from one in which carrier rates had been compressed to the floor, and that eventually, those rates were going to kick back up. The strategy we talked about with our agents was to secure the loads then and reap the rewards later.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing play out. Tallgrass had a record year for load count in 2025. I’m incredibly proud of our agents, whose diligence resulted in nearly 100,000 loads for the year, representing 25-35% year-over-year growth. And now, with carrier rates on the rise, the agents who put in the work to build their volume are starting to see the benefit on the revenue and margin side. In March of 2025, our average truckload cost was around $1,600. Today, it’s above $2,000. That’s a very meaningful jump. The plan was always to grind through the soft market, secure the volume and then reap the benefits when the cycle turned. We’re in that turn right now.
Q2 Freight Outlook: What We’re Watching
Fuel prices and international uncertainty
The situation in Iran has pushed fuel prices up significantly, as the headlines will attest. We’re looking at 30% to 40% spikes in some parts of the country. That’s a real cost burden for carriers. And for smaller operators who don’t have the financial cushion to absorb that kind of volatility, it’s forcing some of them to close up shop altogether. Fewer trucks on the road means tighter capacity, which means we’ll likely see rates increase. That said, I do believe the fuel spike will be short-term. Once the situation with Iran stabilizes, I expect oil markets to settle back toward normal levels.
Capacity is tightening (and not only because of fuel)
We’re taking note of a broader tightening in the carrier market, and it goes beyond fuel costs. Things like increased regulatory scrutiny, English-language requirements from shippers and CDL compliance crackdowns are all contributing to fewer trucks from the available pool.
Every driver who comes off the road means one less truck that can haul freight, while the amount of freight on the market stays largely the same. Supply and demand always wins in freight. Fewer available carriers plus consistent freight volume is going to equal higher rates. We expect to see this trend playing out not only in Q2, but likely well beyond.
Freight fraud isn’t going away
I wish I could say that freight fraud is trending down, but it’s not. Unlike the fuel spike, which we anticipate to be temporary, freight fraud is unfortunately here to stay. The people running these schemes are resourceful. They prey on inexperienced brokers and companies that aren’t built for strong compliance, and they’re always finding new ways to stay one step ahead.
While freight agents can’t eliminate the risk entirely, there are absolutely strategies to minimize it. At Tallgrass, education is one of our biggest tools. We hold monthly learning calls for our independent freight agents covering everything from compliance to carrier optimization, and freight fraud is a regular topic because keeping it top of mind is how you stay sharp.
The fundamentals never change: if it smells fishy, it probably is. If a carrier rate is too good to be true, it probably is. We continue to lean on MyCarrierPortal to vet every new carrier, and our compliance team has been doing an outstanding job of flagging potential issues before they become real problems.
Preventing freight fraud also includes educating your customers. When a carrier arrives, the MC number, tractor-trailer number, and driver name all need to match. If anything is off, do not load them.
A carrier falling off on a Friday afternoon is exactly when the pressure to cut corners is highest, and the people running these schemes know it and count on it. When in doubt, it’s always better to wait until Monday than to put a questionable carrier on your customer’s freight. That kind of advocacy will help you build relationships that last years instead of months.
Margin compression is real, but so is the opportunity
Margins are still compressed across the industry, but they’re moving in the right direction. As carrier rates rise, the cost to ship goes up. That means freight agents need to begin having strategic conversations with their customers about pricing. You don’t have to hit everyone with a blanket rate increase all at once. Be specific. Be surgical. Be strategic. Pick the lanes where it makes the most sense and have those conversations proactively, before your customer gets a surprise on their next invoice.
The freight agents who built volume through the down market are going to be the ones who see the biggest payoff here. Revenue per shipment and margin per shipment are going up. That’s the reward agents get for doing the work.
What Our Best Freight Agents Are Doing Right Now
There’s a lot happening in the news. I get it. But the smartest thing any agent can do right now is to treat the headlines the way you’d treat your scale while on a diet — don’t check it every single day. Don’t allow the 24/7 news cycle pull you away from what you should be doing. The most successful freight agents focus on what can be controlled: your attitude, your effort and your plan.
Right now, there’s never been a better time to be having quality conversations with your customers and prospects. People are more open to talking than they have been in years. They know rates are going up. Perhaps they had a bad experience with a fraudulent carrier or a double-brokered load. They’re looking for a freight expert they can trust who’s going to pick up the phone when things go sideways and solve problems alongside them, not disappear.
The best agents I know aren’t guessing. They have a plan, they know their numbers and they’re executing. The freight agents who keep their foot on the gas right now — who don’t get comfortable just because the market is shifting in their favor — are going to look back on 2026 and 2027 as some of the best years of their careers.
Uncertainty Is Not a Reason to Wait
I sometimes hear from independent freight agents (or from those considering becoming one) who look at everything happening in the market and think, “Maybe now isn’t the right time.” But I’ll push back on that pretty hard. If you wait for ideal market conditions, you’ll be sitting still your entire career. Why? Freight doesn’t stop. It doesn’t pause for international conflict, or regulatory changes or market cycles. Your customer’s products still have to move from point A to point B. That is never going to change.
Freight brokerages that launched in 2008, right in the middle of the Recession, and they’re still around today. Freight brokerages that launched right in the middle of the Pandemic are still thriving today. Disruption in the freight market is always an opportunity to show your customers who you really are. The best time to have a plan you’re executing was yesterday. The second-best time is today. The slice of pie is big, and there’s plenty of freight out there for everybody. You just have to be willing to go get it.
Looking Ahead
A lot is happening out there, but the fundamentals of the freight business haven’t changed. Freight is moving, relationships matter and the freight agents who stay consistent are the ones who win. I’m looking forward to seeing what our agents accomplish this quarter, and as always, if there’s anything we can do to support you, we’re here.
If you’re considering joining our freight agent network and want to learn more, let’s chat. Contact us today to get started. There’s never been a better time to join Tallgrass.